Release Date: November 9, 2017
This month's 2017/18 U.S. cotton estimates include higher production and ending stocks, as a smaller crop in the West is more than offset by gains in the Southwest and other regions. While the U.S. production forecast is raised 1 percent, to 21.4 million bales, domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are now estimated 300,000 bales higher at 6.1 million bales and at 34 percent, are forecast at their highest share of use since 2008/09. The marketiing-year average price received by producers is forecast at 63 cents per pound, 3 cents above the October estimate reflecting prices to date.
The 2017/18 world cotton forecasts include lower beginning stocks, higher consumption, and lower ending stocks. World production is raised 596,000 bales, as larger expected crops in China and the United States offset a 200,000 bale decline in the forecast for Australia. But world 2017/18 ending stocks are forecast 1.5 million bales lower this month - a 1.6 percent decline - as revised historical data results in a 900,000 bale decline in estimated beginning stocks. Argentina's 740,000 bale dcline in beginning stocks is accompanied by smaller declines in the estimates for Australia and Uzbekistan. World 2017/18 consumption is forecasts 1.2 million bales higher than last month, with increases of 300,000 to 550,000 bales in the forecasts for Uzbekistan, China, and Bangladesh. World trade is forecast 180,000 bales lower as a 400,000 bale decline in expected exports by Uzbekistan is only partly offset by a 100,000 bale increase for Brazil and smaller increases elsewhere.